Officials Strategize to Address Potential Threats Before New Hampshire Primary

As the countdown to New Hampshire's presidential primary begins, authorities are already taking strides to anticipate potential threats and devise strategies to thwart them, according to a recent assessment by the New Hampshire Information and Analysis Center (NHIAC).

This confidential analysis, circulated among law enforcement on Jan. 17 and obtained by ABC News, delves into various conceivable plots that could disrupt the upcoming primary, the first in the nation on Tuesday.

Despite stating there's "no information to indicate any specific, credible threat," the document emphasizes the need for law enforcement and government officials to remain vigilant. It underscores the critical importance of proactively addressing potential risks and troubleshooting potential attacks.

The NHIAC expresses ongoing concerns about threats emanating from foreign terrorist organizations, racially motivated violent extremists, domestic violent extremists, homegrown violent extremists, and other entities seeking to disrupt US elections.

The analysis points to a pattern of numerous attacks and disrupted plots in recent years, highlighting the persistent interest of both foreign and domestic extremists in targeting mass gatherings, soft targets, and symbolic events, with few events as symbolic as the first primary. Officials caution that certain individuals possess the capability to disrupt, suppress, or discourage voters in New Hampshire.

This analysis coincides with the commencement of the high-stakes presidential election season, transpiring in a period characterized by heightened threats across various spectrums. John Cohen, former intelligence chief at the Department of Homeland Security and an ABC News contributor, notes that the 2024 election cycle unfolds amid one of the most volatile and dangerous threat environments since Sept. 11. He underscores that the absence of credible information about a specific plot or attack doesn't negate the existence of a potential threat.

Experts argue that the 2024 presidential primary is set against a global environment akin to a powder keg. This election follows the conclusion of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Capitol attack on Jan. 6, and is marked by toxic political rhetoric, the intersection of the courtroom and campaign trail for former President Donald Trump's four criminal trials, and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. The proliferation of hate speech, misinformation, and disinformation on social media, coupled with vulnerable technology, creates ripe opportunities for adversarial countries aiming to influence US elections.

John Cohen emphasizes that the current threat environment stems from pervasive anger and polarization in society, extending into political discourse. Election officials are urged to be prepared to counteract potential incidents rather than waiting for them to unfold.

Some state election officials, including Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, have already fallen victim to "swatting" incidents, involving false reports of emergencies intended to induce fear. Public events, particularly politically charged ones, become convenient targets for violence, expressions of grievance, or disruptions, warns Elizabeth Neumann, former DHS assistant secretary.

The New Hampshire analysis outlines potential threats from foreign cyber operations to covert influence operations targeting election security and political entities. The use of advancing and hyper-realistic artificial intelligence as a tool to spread false narratives and influence public perception is expected.

The bulletin provides a detailed list of potential threat indicators that law enforcement should monitor, including unattended luggage concealing explosives, increased social media traffic discussing event vulnerabilities, and power loss at event locations affecting voting capabilities.

The bulletin highlights the vulnerability of state and local election websites, email addresses, and social media platforms, citing phishing schemes and other malicious efforts that could impact elections and infrastructure negatively. Notably, New Hampshire employs secure, non-electronic means for voting, utilizing paper ballots counted offline and transported to the Secretary of State's Office via the New Hampshire State Police.

Anticipating a record turnout in New Hampshire's Republican primary, Secretary of State David Scanlan emphasizes the importance of preparedness and collaboration with law enforcement partners. Tyler Dumont, spokesperson for New Hampshire's Department of Safety, confirms ongoing contingency planning, with a commitment to ensuring the safety of all citizens during Tuesday's primary.

John Cohen concludes that, while the threat may seem daunting, having a well-thought-out plan reduces its impact, and signs of such planning are beginning to emerge. This includes a literal map of New Hampshire's polling locations included in the analysis.

In summary, New Hampshire public safety officials are actively preparing for potential emergencies, working collaboratively with law enforcement partners and remaining vigilant about global and national events. Despite the challenges posed by the volatile threat landscape, concerted efforts are underway to ensure the safety and security of the upcoming primary.

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